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Announcements
The Prospect Group Media Partnership with the Annual Investment Meeting 2012
AIM Press Release- AIM & Economic Outlook
"Emerging Markets Economic Strength Will Help Rebalance Global Growth" said Nouriel Roubini ahead of the Annual Investment Meeting to be held in Dubai, May 1-3, 2012
Hello all, I'm writing to let you know about one of my new pieces on Roubini.com, "The Deteriorating Economic Outlook for the Eurozone," in which I detail seven headwinds to eurozone (EZ) growth:
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The slowing core: We can no longer look to Germany and France to save the region with their growth.
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Fiscal austerity: It will take years to see the benefits of structural reforms that can boost growth in the periphery—in the meantime, fiscal austerity will keep these economies mired in a deepening recession.
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Politics: At some point, achieving the draconian fiscal targets and delivering on promised structural reforms will cause a public backlash that could unsettle bond markets.
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The banks: The negative feedback loop between the economy, banks and the sovereign only gets worse with a slowing economy.
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The ECB—valiant, but overwhelmed: Against a backdrop of slowing economic growth, the ECB’s responses to the EZ crisis are too little, too late.
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An overvalued currency: The one silver lining of a weaker euro exchange rate is not occurring nearly fast enough.
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Greece, yet again: A disorderly default by Greece is likely and could rock the EZ.
Nouriel Roubini, CEO, Roubini Global Economics, looking forward in 2012 and beyond, the state of the global economy looks gloomy with high unemployment rates, mounting sovereign debt and limited economic growth in mature markets. Emerging Market economies are slowing down but continue to grow strongly, and have strong long-term prospects, particularly those that have improved macroeconomic management, better use of foreign capital and stronger education. South-South trade and investment is on the rise. The next step will be policies that improve coordination and increase final demand in both EM economies, to help rebalance global growth and increase global demand. We will discussing these realities at the Annual Investment Meeting in Dubai.
Grant Thornton, are committed to a strong culture of innovation, commitment to quality and leadership and as part of our corporate social responsibility; it is our pride and pleasure to be working closely with the organizing committee for the 2nd edition of the Annual Investment Meeting, in making this event as successful as the first edition in 2011. Having established our presence in the Republic of Azerbaijan and all over the CIS region thru our regional offices, we are in a proper position to support the objective of AIM of highlighting financing options and emphasizing trading possibilities in frontier and emerging markets with a strong focus on high growth sectors. Azerbaijan is today’s leading economy in the CIS region being considered an important gateway to north Iran, East Turkey, Russia and even further to Kazakhstan and China and investment potentials are vast welcoming creations of business networks and strategic commercial alignments. Grant Thornton is capable of supporting the initiatives taken by the UAE government in creating bilateral relations between companies from the UAE and the CIS region.
Finance and Banking Monthly: Year of the Financial Transaction Tax?
By Jennifer Kapila and Parul Walia
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Valuations at the end of 2011 have baked in more of the attendant risks than a year earlier, but estimates remain vulnerable and tail risks are still meaningful. Slowing growth or contraction in major economies, the evolution of financial regulation and fiscal- and event-driven political risk will condition the sector’s fundamentals and valuations.
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Given RGE’s grim view of the EZ situation and regulatory risk, we opt for non-EZ risk and remain in the senior end of the capital structure. Reaction to the UniCredit capital raising reflects pent-up dilution risk, debt exchanges keeps pressure on subordinated debt spreads and senior unsecured debt will reflect increasing subordination and FX risk.
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Key upside risks are: Successful disintermediation of the EU banking system, i.e. demand to meet deleveraging supply; weaker-than-expected regulation; aggressive and unconventional monetary policy in Europe; and a lower-than-expected impact from the Chinese property correction on domestic investment. Wide-scale mortgage modifications would be a short-term negative for U.S. earnings and possibly, investors, but a long-term positive for the U.S. housing market.
Equity Strategy Weekly—January 17, 2012
By Ibrahim Gassambe
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Market risk sentiment last week was slightly positive amid lower borrowing costs in Europe, speculation that China will ease its policy and an encouraging earnings report, and despite renewed fear over Greek private-sector involvement (PSI) discussions, weaker macro data in Europe and mixed data in the U.S. Risky assets rose slightly in value as investors focused on lower borrowing costs in Europe and amid a much anticipated ratings downgrade at weeks’ end.
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Last week, borrowing costs in Spain, Italy and France continued to ease as Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy met once again to set the agenda for upcoming EU meeting and work on the new budget rulebook, which looks to be completed a month ahead of schedule. Spain successfully sold EUR10 billion of bonds, twice its target, while Italy sold EUR8.5 billion worth of 12-months bills at a very low yield of 2.735% and EUR3 billion of 2014 bonds at 4.83%.
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The earnings report this week was also a major factor improving investors’ sentiment, as Lennar and Alcoa beat expectations. Lennar reported a pickup in new orders in Q4 2011, which supported speculation that housing maybe picking up.
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With just eight companies having reported so far, EPS surprise so far is negative largely driven by financials. Alcoa and Lennar positively surprised with the Lennar’s surprise boosting homebuilders stocks, as investors speculate that housing maybe improving amid a pickup in new orders. We expect Q4 S&P EPS of $24 in line with consensus for a full-year EPS of $97. Our EPS estimate for 2012 is $99 versus top-down estimate of $102.
Strong Russian presence in AIM 2012 with the participation of Chelyabinsk region, Chechen Republic, Tatarstan and more.
The China Arab Exchange Association will be signing a strategic MoU with AIM Organizing Committee on January 17th, 2012 to formalize the hosting of the China Arab Forum at AIM 2012.
Attending signees are:
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Mr. Qin Yong, vice chairman and General Secretary of CAEA, CEO of China Arab.com
- Mr. Huang Shipeng, Vice secretary of CAEA, General Manager of China Arab.com
- Ms. Zhu Yin, Assistant to CEO of China Arab.com
- Mr. Wu Licai, Member of CPPCC of Sichuan Province, Acting member of Sichuan Chamber of Commerce, Standing member of CPPCC of Yibin City, Vice Chairman of Yibin Chamber of Commerce, President of Sichuan Garden Industry, President of Western Logistics Center Investment
- Mr. Chen Lianjun, General Manager of Sichuan Zejianneng Commerce and Trade
“The Argentina-Arab Chamber of Commerce sees in the Annual Investment Meeting a great opportunity to further economic cooperation between one of the fastest growing economy in Latin America and the GCC region. We are here to build hope-for synergies as we strongly believe in expending trade and business avenues across continents. We are confident that sustaining our partnerships and strengthening our ties with the GCC will translate into viable economic opportunities for both regions, which now are much more linked and connected through the new routes Dubai-Buenos Aires developed by the Dubai´s most successful story to date, Emirates Airlines.” - Walid Al Kaddour, Director, Arab-Argentina Chamber of Commerce, AIM 2012 Argentinean Business & Trade Partner
“In 2010 developing countries received over 50% of the global FDI inflows and generated record levels of FDI outflows. This illustrates how key these countries have become for the vitality of the global economy. They not only represent new growing markets, they propose new business and productive approaches, new opportunities with the capacity to mobilize financing means. ANIMA is very proud to take part in the organisation of the Annual Investment Meeting in Dubai, by bringing businesses and countries willing to engage in sustainable partnerships with investors. The new Mediterranean is going to reinvent its relationship with its neighbors, for the benefit of its peoples, and being in Dubai at AIM shall be a milestone in this process”. - Mrs Wafaa Sobhy, Chairwoman of ANIMA Investment Network.
Daniel Broby, Chief Investment Officer, Silk Invest has agreed to join AIM 2012 speakers’ faculty. He will be discussing the post Arab Spring Investment roadmap and sovereign risk assessment for MENA region.
You can learn more about Daniel Broby here: http://www.silkinvest.com/news/cnn-daniel-broby-on-the-mena-region
Mr. Jerome Alan Reid, Chief Executive Officer, Forward Funds, former Executive Director of Private Wealth Management at Morgan Stanley, USA, has agreed to join AIM 2012 as speaker. He will share his wealth of expertise and experience as an investment advisor to key sovereign wealth funds and private equities. His presentation will also delve into debt management.
More on forwards fund here: http://www.forwardfunds.com/about.htm Recent news on Mr. Alan Reid: http://www.hedgeweek.com/2011/11/21/158050/forward-launches-global-credit-longshort-fund-focused-corporate-debt-opportunities
DIFC @ AIM 2012 - Dubai International Financial Centre has joined AIM as Official Financial Hub Partner
The 2nd edition of the Annual Investment Meeting, a global emerging-market led conference and investment trade fair hosted by the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Foreign Trade.
AIM 2012, A Point of Convergence for Emerging Markets & Global Investors
Nouriel Roubini has agreed AIM 2012 as a keynote speaker and special guest.
Thomson Reuters has Joined AIM 2012 as Global Media Partner. Check our www.reuters.com to keep abreast with the most updated economic and investment news.
AFIC (L'Association Française des Investisseurs en Capital), French Private Equity Association, has joined AIM 2012 as partner. Read more here: www.afic.asso.fr
Dubai’s own Al Danube Chairman, Rizwan Sajan will share his two decade long experience with the regional (GCC) construction and building materials sector @AIM 2012 with a focus on sustaining growth despite commodities price fluctuations. Featured at number 51st on Arabian Business Indian Power list and with offices recently opened in all key developing markets in GCC, South East Asia, India and Africa Rizwan Sajan comes with a compelling success story on investment in emerging markets.
AIM is pleased to announce that Namibia is Joining AIM 2012. A strong delegation from the Southern African Country will Join to present multiple investment opportunities in the country.
AIM is proud to announce that HE Gita Wirjawan, former Chairman of Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board and speaker at AIM 2011, has just been appointed Indonesia new Minister of Trade
AIM is proud to announce that HE Gita Wirjawan, former Chairman of Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board and speaker at AIM 2011, has just been appointed Indonesia new Minister of Trade
“UAE had limited its exposure to economic crisis” said His Highness Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the UAE and Ruler of Dubai at the World Economic Forum... www.wef.com
Juliusz Klosowski, Chief Editor of The Voice of Warsaw, polish and CEE leading business publication has something to say about AIM 2011 and 2012.... Coming up next on AIM Testimonials page on http://aimcongress.com/testimonials.php
La Libre Belgique, Belgium's leading business and general affairs newspaper is supporting AIM 2012
MEDEF, French Most Prominent Business Leaders Union is supporting AIM 2012. Check it here:
AIM 212 opens horizons for investors and project promoters a like
AIM 2012 will offer multi sector project showcases from over 80 countries
AIM 2012 will focus on Islamic finance during pre-event workshop
AIM 2011 ended with as bigger a momentum than it gained when announced back in January by the United Arab Emirates Ministry of Foreign Trade on January 23rd 2011.
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